Hot Air’s Quote of the day is:
“Seven percent of 1.3 billion leaves us with . . . 91 million radical Islamists. And to think we were concerned!”
Well, yes. I’ve got a category (The Tiny Percentage of Radical Islamists) dedicated to posts with that sort of math, and I’m quite sure I wasn’t the first person to think of it. I hope the concept finally gets some traction. Since this study came up with 7% (as opposed to the UK study that came in at 13%), let’s run with those numbers and see if they can be so cavalierly dismissed.
Since it’s unlikely the entire 7% (again, that’s 91 million) of these “political radicals” would actually do anything but grumble amongst themselves about the Great Satan or at most, join Islamic Rage Boy at a flag burning, let’s guess only 7% of them would be willing to perform a terrorist act. That’s 6,370,000 people.
Now lets guess how many would be effective - sticking with the 7%, that’s 445,900 effective terrorists, if the 7% of the 7% of the 7% estimate is accurate.
All of those people aren’t going to have the connections needed to perform a large scale terrorist attack, so take it to the next 7% level. That would be 31,213 political radicals who are willing, can act effectively, and have the connections to conduct a large-scale terrorist attack. All theory, of course. The only number we can be sure of is that 7% in the study who actually admitted their views. But out of 91 million people who believe, I think it’s quite reasonable to conclude that there are 31,000 would would and could act on their beliefs.
Now let’s hand it to the Department of Homeland Security and guess that they monitor 93% of these terrorists in spite of the fact that Congress hinders them for political gain and the media proudly exposes legal, effective, classified programs – the 7% that goes unmonitored is 2,178 people. Is is possible or reasonable to conclude there are 2,000 people in the world with the desire and ability to conduct a major terrorist attack? If the answer is yes, are a mere 2,100 people worth bothering with?
Nineteen took down the WTC and hit the Pentagon. One person with the right chemicals or germs in Grand Central Station could effectively shut down New York for weeks, costing thousands of lives and millions or even billions of dollars.
Over 8,000 aliens are currently taking flight lessons, being granted FAA certifications and are flying planes without undergoing a required background check by TSA.* Any chance even 7% of them – 560 people – mean us harm? If you think that number is ridiculously high, reduce it again – 7% of that is 39 people. Nothing to worry about, I’m sure.
Dalia Mogahed, Esposito’s co-author, says, “A billion Muslims should be the ones that we look to, to understand what they believe, rather than a vocal minority.” How right she is. We need to find out from one billion rational human beings why they largely refuse to stand up for humanity and dignity instead of cowering in the face of fascist thugs. They’re the only Westerners this study challenges.
Pulling some more numbers out of my hat – business networkers live by the “300 Rule” – everyone knows at least 300 people. So that means that there are 653,400 who could potentially turn our theoretical 2,178 effective terrorists in. We’re relying on those family members, friends, co-workers, and acquaintances. Someday maybe we’ll see an Islamic Neighborhood Watch which will stop terrorism at its source, but not until the consequences for silence are worse than the bondage in which this vast majority of moderates choose to live. Alternatively, maybe we’re just fooling ourselves. Maybe it’s passive agreement, not passive disagreement, that causes their silence. Time will tell.
[*Added after I saw it in the headlines at Hot Air.]