Even More Islamic Math

Hot Air’s Quote of the day is:

“Seven percent of 1.3 billion leaves us with . . . 91 million radical Islamists. And to think we were concerned!”

Well, yes. I’ve got a category (The Tiny Percentage of Radical Islamists) dedicated to posts with that sort of math, and I’m quite sure I wasn’t the first person to think of it. I hope the concept finally gets some traction. Since this study came up with 7% (as opposed to the UK study that came in at 13%), let’s run with those numbers and see if they can be so cavalierly dismissed.

Since it’s unlikely the entire 7% (again, that’s 91 million) of these “political radicals” would actually do anything but grumble amongst themselves about the Great Satan or at most, join Islamic Rage Boy at a flag burning, let’s guess only 7% of them would be willing to perform a terrorist act. That’s 6,370,000 people.

Now lets guess how many would be effective - sticking with the 7%, that’s 445,900 effective terrorists, if the 7% of the 7% of the 7% estimate is accurate.

All of those people aren’t going to have the connections needed to perform a large scale terrorist attack, so take it to the next 7% level. That would be 31,213 political radicals who are willing, can act effectively, and have the connections to conduct a large-scale terrorist attack. All theory, of course. The only number we can be sure of is that 7% in the study who actually admitted their views. But out of 91 million people who believe, I think it’s quite reasonable to conclude that there are 31,000 would would and could act on their beliefs.

Now let’s hand it to the Department of Homeland Security and guess that they monitor 93% of these terrorists in spite of the fact that Congress hinders them for political gain and the media proudly exposes legal, effective, classified programs – the 7% that goes unmonitored is 2,178 people. Is is possible or reasonable to conclude there are 2,000 people in the world with the desire and ability to conduct a major terrorist attack? If the answer is yes, are a mere 2,100 people worth bothering with?

Nineteen took down the WTC and hit the Pentagon. One person with the right chemicals or germs in Grand Central Station could effectively shut down New York for weeks, costing thousands of lives and millions or even billions of dollars.

Over 8,000 aliens are currently taking flight lessons, being granted FAA certifications and are flying planes without undergoing a required background check by TSA.*  Any chance even 7% of them  – 560 people – mean us harm?   If you think that number is ridiculously high,  reduce it again – 7% of that is 39 people.  Nothing to worry about, I’m sure.appeasement.jpg

Dalia Mogahed, Esposito’s co-author, says, “A billion Muslims should be the ones that we look to, to understand what they believe, rather than a vocal minority.” How right she is. We need to find out from one billion rational human beings why they largely refuse to stand up for humanity and dignity instead of cowering in the face of fascist thugs. They’re the only Westerners this study challenges.

Pulling some more numbers out of my hat – business networkers live by the “300 Rule” – everyone knows at least 300 people. So that means that there are 653,400 who could potentially turn our theoretical 2,178 effective terrorists in. We’re relying on those family members, friends, co-workers, and acquaintances. Someday maybe we’ll see an Islamic Neighborhood Watch which will stop terrorism at its source, but not until the consequences for silence are worse than the bondage in which this vast majority of moderates choose to live. Alternatively, maybe we’re just fooling ourselves. Maybe it’s passive agreement, not passive disagreement, that causes their silence. Time will tell.

[*Added after I saw it in the headlines at Hot Air.]

Radical Islamic Math from the Daily Mail

I have a whole category on this topic – I’m glad to see media finally picking up on the concept that although percentages involved may be small, there is a large enough group of radical Islamists in the West to be genuinely concerned about:

One in 11 British Muslims backs suicide bombers, says Brown aide

What’s that mean in real numbers?

Mr Rafiq, an adviser to the Government’s preventing extremism taskforce, said: “A percentage of people actually agree and support proactively the people that are deciding to blow themselves up.

“It varies, it can be 7 per cent, 5 per cent, 9 per cent.”

With 1.6million Muslims living in the UK, nine per cent is the equivalent of 144,000 people supporting terrorism.

Just in the UK. Again, all of those people are not going to become suicide bombers themselves. Most of them will be satisfied with promoting the concept, and some will put their money where their mouth is. But if just 9% of that 144,000 decided to stake their lives on their beliefs, that’s 12,960. If a mere 1% did, that’s still 1,400. Just in the UK. That’s a lot of suicide bombers. To minimize it further – if a thousandth of a percent acted, that’s 14.

Consider the damage 4 terrorists did in London on 7/7 and 19 did in the U.S. on 9/11.

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Pew: 102,876,651 Muslims Approve of Suicide Bombing

Pew: 102,876,651 Muslims Approve of Suicide Bombing

According to Pew, fewer Muslims today believe suicide bombing is always or sometimes justified than did five years ago.


This reduction is good news and Pew’s take on it is quite positive:

Dwindling Muslim Support for Terrorism

The marked decline in the acceptance of suicide bombing is one of several findings that suggest a possible broader rejection of extremist tactics among many in the Muslim world. In many of the countries where support for suicide attacks has fallen there also have been large drops in support for Osama bin Laden. For example, the percentage of Jordanian Muslims who have confidence in bin Laden as a world leader has fallen 36 percentage points since 2003 while the proportion who say suicide bombing is sometimes or always justified has dropped 20 points.

But keep it in perspective. It’s good news that far fewer people think this is an acceptable method of achieving political goals. However, using the percentages provided by the Pew poll and each country’s Muslim population according to the CIA World Factbook, we can deduce that 102,876,651 Muslims in the countries listed still find suicide bombing an acceptable option.

Muslim Population
% in 2007
Who Believe
Suicide Bombing
Lebanon 3,925,502.00 2,343,524.69
Bangladesh 150,448,339.00 124,872,121.37
Pakistan 164,741,924.00 159,799,666.28
Jordan 6,053,193.00 5,568,937.56
Indonesia 234,693,997.00 202,071,531.42
Tanzania 39,384,223.00 13,784,478.05
Nigeria 135,031,164.00 67,515,582.00
Turkey 71,158,647.00 71,016,329.71

Few Muslims who believe suicide bombings are acceptable in the abstract will act on those beliefs. However, if only 5% acted, there would be over 5,143,832 suicide bombings. If only 1%, there would be 1,028,766. If a tenth of a percent acted, that would be 102,876. The truth is that while the percentages involved might be small, the actual numbers are significant, especially considering the damage 19 people (9/11/2001) or even 4 people (7/7/2005) can do.

In May, 2007, Pew reported that “by nearly two-to-one (63%-32%) Muslim Americans do not see a conflict between being a devout Muslim and living in a modern society.” The Associated Press spun the headline furiously, trying to find an acceptable angle to present the information that approximately 752,000 Muslims in America did see a conflict between their faith and modern society. Buried in this Pew survey on Muslim Americans on page 54, it states that a mere 5% of Muslims in the United States express a favorable opinion of al Qaeda. However, there are 2.35 million Muslims in the US, so that means 117,500 Muslims in the United States have a favorable opinion of al Qaeda.

The mainstream media generally reports unqualified good news about the attitudes of Muslims, and unqualified bad news about Iraq. They provide context for neither, where context is badly needed. Hopefully the Pew report’s conclusion is true, and that these improvements represent a “rising tide.” But the way the media is covering the story minimizes a serious problem. We should not minimize the problem – we should be finding out what caused the reduction and working to improve on it. Hot Air provides more analysis of the latest Pew survey, taking note of the fact that “as a general but not ironclad rule, the closer a country is to Israel the more suicide-happy they are. The standout numbers are of course for the Palestinians, who continue to set the standard for savagery against which all others are measured.”

Pew Research: Muslim Americans – Middle Class and Mostly Mainstream
Pew Research: A Rising Tide Lifts Mood in the Developing World – Sharp Decline in Support for Suicide Bombing in Muslim Countries
More on the “tiny percentage” of radical Islamists in the PH archives.

The Tiny Percentage of Radical Islamists in the U.S.

The Associated Press is spinning furiously, trying to find the best angle to take on this story.

Of approximately 2.35 million Muslims in the U.S., 5% (there’s that five percent again!) expressed a favorable opinion of al Qaeda. That’s 117,500 people, already in the U.S., agreeing with our enemies that we should be subjugated or killed.

60% do not believe that Arab men carried out the 9/11 attacks. That’s 1,410,000 people, living among us (and remember that doesn’t count the non-Muslim, leftist lunatics like Rosie O’Donnell) who believe in a conspiracy theory of some sort.

13% say that suicide bombings of civilians to defend Islam are justified. That’s 305,500 residents of the United States who think it’s okay to strap on a bomb and kill people who are going about their daily business.

Let’s see, that was 19 people on 9/11, and four on 7/7. Hair raising, indeed.

Update: Hot Air has a lot more on this poll, including some very interesting analysis.

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