There is a growing meme on the left that the right is completely hypocritical for our willingness to spend money on the Iraq war but not the stimulus; that the costs are more or less equal and that the stimulus benefits our own countrymen instead of throwing it into the money pit of endless and useless war. As with all successful lies, this one is getting traction because there is a grain of truth in it. I had a hard time finding current figures for the cost of the war to date from a (presumably) neutral source, but settled for the CBO via Wikipedia. According to that, as of five months ago the Iraq war bill to date was $550 billion dollars. Contrast that with porkulus, weighing in at $795 billion; about a third larger.
However, the Iraq war is winding down because we’ve won. Now we just have to assist the Iraqis with maintaining their peace and freedom; the monthly cost for that is considerably less than when we were waging an active war. As with John McCain’s “100 years” reference to the fact that we’re still in Germany sixty years later, few (rational) people will gripe about the cost of having an ally who has requested our continued presence and assistance next door to Iran. A country, I would like to note, which has been our enemy since 1979 and that the left now hypocritically acknowledges is building a nuclear weapon. But I digress. The costs are not equal, and the ongoing cost of the Iraq war is dropping and will continue to drop until we leave. That’s the thing about wars; they’re really not endless. Eventually, you either win, or you lose.
In contrast to the Iraq war, there is no reasonable expectation that all of this new government spending is going to end. Now that the stimulus has passed, the media acknowledges that this is a more or less permanent transformation of our economy and government, not a one-time economic stimulus.
“There are people lining up who will be absolutely outraged if any of these things are pulled back,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “Many of them will be made permanent, without question.”
A refreshing dose of honesty from the media – though it would have been better received a week ago, when Congress and the public were panicked into buying this pig in a poke. Congress didn’t even read the bill before passing it. What if people knew that our health care system would be socialized without a by-your-leave, that their doctor will literally be supervised by the federal government; that the very successful Clinton welfare reforms would be rolled back; that it was loaded down with non-stimulating pork like STD prevention and a high speed rail line from LA to Vegas… would they have permitted it? We’ll never know, but I feel quite safe in predicting that President Obama will violate his pledge to wait five days and post it on the White House website in a searchable format before signing it.
I don’t believe our government has ever reduced itself in size. A perfect example of a temp-to-perm government agency is the REA. The Rural Electrification Act passed in 1936. In 1949 it branched out into telephones, in 1988, it started lending money for job creation, and even though by 1972, 98% of farms had electricity, it still continued to exist until 1994 – when it was finally not closed, but taken over by another agency, the RUS. There is no rational or reasonable expectation that the government is going to be rolled back in any way after this “stimulus.” We have just delivered ourselves and our fellow citizens deeper into government bondage, even though Keynesian economics have never once worked. Tax Freedom day was April 23 last year. It is unlikely to ever be that early again.
So even in my own chart, listing the cost of the stimulus and stimulus with interest is inaccurate. The initial cost is higher, and it will continue to rise. This is just what President Obama promised in his campaign; a transformational change of our nation. As Newsweek admits, we are now more socialist. And we can look forward to European-style permanently higher taxes, much larger entitlements, and correspondingly lower GDP and less wealth. Quite an accomplishment in less than a month – Carter on speed, indeed. The long term cost of the stimulus is incalculable; unchartable, unlike the economic cost of the Iraq war.
To compare the Iraq War to the stimulus is specious at best.
ADDED: I had to replace the chart image because the cost of the Iraq war with interest was mislabeled as 2.4 trillion, which is actually the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan with interest. That’s corrected now. I also focused in this post on debunking the idea that the cost of the stimulus and the Iraq war are in any way comparable, without really addressing the relative benefits of either. Obviously, I believe the Iraq war was a good idea. I believe that for a number of reasons, from the fact that millions of people were freed from tyranny, that it drew al Qaeda to Iraq where we crushed them and also put the lie to their propaganda which affected their recruitment, that we have a solid foothold and ally next door to Iran, and more. There were, IIRC, either twelve or seventeen reasons on the authorization to go to Iraq. It wasn’t all about WMD although at one point even the NYT inadvertently admitted – in the guise of Bush-bashing – that “Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.” The Brits investigation eventually showed that the whole Joe Wilson scandal was made up of whole cloth, and the AP eventually, grudgingly, reported that Saddam had a pretty extensive nuke program and quite a bit of yellowcake. But I digress. Suffice to say I think that the Iraq war was beneficial for a whole lot of reasons, though you could just take a liberal’s list of reasons why people in Darfur deserve to be freed by our troops from their sufferings, do a find/replace for Darfur/Iraq and leave it at that.
As to the relative benefits of the stimulus to our countrymen – I don’t call turning the U.S. into France a benefit to anyone. Nor higher entitlements, especially the pre-reform welfare system which was unbelievably corrupt and terrible (and that’s not speculation; I was in that system myself), nor lower productivity, nor socialized, rationed medicine… the stimulus certainly will affect our fellow citizens but I would not call the expected results to be a benefit. Nor will this stimulus even work; it’s not working in Australia and didn’t work in Japan (Google Japan’s lost decade!) and there’s no reasonable expectation it will work here. The START plan, written by Democrat Walt Minnick of Idaho, was a much more reasonable plan at 170 billion, was actually stimulative, and not a lard-fest.
Obama’s stealing the census from Congress has suddenly awakened and enraged the Republicans. Maybe this will arouse them as well to challenge Obama for stealing the Presidency itself. They surely know he is not an Article 2 “natural born citizen” (which is more than merely being a 14th Amendment “citizen”) by virtue of either Obama’s birth to a dad of Kenyan/British citizenship or birth in Kenya itself — as manifested by his unwillingness to supply his long form birth certificate now under seal.
Ted, I’m not buying that Trutherish stuff. Seriously, don’t peddle it here. I’ve looked into it enough to know it’s never going to fly. Nor should it. There are so many legitimate reasons to oppose him; don’t marginalize yourself like this.
My two state legislators have signed on to a new lawsuit to make Obama present his birth certificate, and I’m with them on it. It’s pretty ridiculous that Obama has fought so hard to conceal it.
So if you make a convenient assumption, you can make the stimulus look as expensive as you like.
How informative.
And what assumption is that – the actual cost, as stated by Congress, or the widely reported total including interest? That’s bad enough, and easily discovered, you are certainly under no obligation to take MY word for it. My assumption that this crap will NEVER be rolled back is based on a couple of decades of observing government growth, no matter which party is in power. GOVERNMENT DOES NOT SHRINK. Can you provide me ANY examples of our government shrinking? If so, I will reconsider my assumption that the stimulus is essentially a permanent change. But even without that, the chart is certainly an accurate representation of the numbers as reported by Congress.
You claim that “we have won the Iraq war”, that “Iran has been our enemy since 1979″, “Keynesian economics has never worked”, “Wilson scandal out of whole cloth”, etc etc… how many of these whoppers can you fit into one post? You have an ingrained habit of relying entirely on biased sources for your facts.
You are horrified by “pork” and yet you vote for Republicans. You cannot even figure out how the construction of a railway could create jobs. And spending money on education and healthcare is “CRAP” according to you.
Are you KIDDING me? Good grief. Two elections not good enough for you? What exactly is your criteria for a win? Cite for me please, when Keynesian economics DID work. Go ahead, I’ll wait. The Wilson scandal was a load of crap, according to the British government, have you got a better source? Oh, right – HuffPo! Invading our sovereign territory and holding our people hostage in 79, and currently sending bombs and their troops to kill our troops in Iraq doesn’t qualify as an enemy? Simply unbelievable.
Yes, I vote for the GOP as the least evil alternative. And while building a railroad can create some jobs, it’s a ridiculously expensive, temporary way of doing so. If we’re going to invest money in ways to create jobs, they should be permanent jobs. And when the railroad goes bankrupt in a few years (we KEEP having to hand out money to Amtrak every few years) then more people will be unemployed and it’ll be defined as a big tragedy. Except it was easily predictable, and a stupid plan right from the off.
YES, spending money on education and healthcare, IN THIS FASHION is crap. We should just burn it and roast some marshmallows, it’d be faster. If you want to have a serious debate about this, that’s fine, but you might try refuting anything I’ve said with more than just a factless, sarcastic comment.
On Iran – aside from border skirmishes, we’ve captured their troops. US News and Time and WaPo. CNN reports on the Iranian bombs killing our troops. And so does the NY Times. And the BBC (Blair complained Iran is killing Brit troops). And USA Today notes Katyusha rocket launchers and other Iranian arms in Iraq being used against our troops. Tell me, please, how their killing our troops makes them not be our enemy? [Less than a minute's Google search to find links you will presumably find more acceptable. If you're anything more than a troll, now's your chance to step up and discuss this reasonably.] [Added - and then I've really got to stop editing this comment - not to mention that whole "Death to America!" thing they've had going on for the last 30+ years - they declare us the Great Satan and themselves our enemy all the freaking time. Don't tell me that you're unwilling to accept their word for it when they say we're their enemies!]
No. Even Zimbabwe has had elections.
The country is a disaster zone. If you want to call a slow decrease in the number of weekly reports of horrific terrorist attacks “winning”, be my guest.
The British government is of course entirely neutral in this matter, isn’t it. You’re referring to the evidence-free Butler report, which only claimed that yellowcake was sought — in an effort to cover the embarrassment of having believed forged documents that said it had been bought? Or are you referring to Plame?
So the problem with the stimulus is that it’s permanent. And the problem with the stimulus is that it’s not permanent. Make up your mind.
Would you consider selling arms to an enemy to be treason? Should Oliver North be shot at dawn?
(Sigh.) So that’s how it’s going to be. Fine. Your utter failure to acknowledge the points I made about Iran waging active war against us, even providing MSM links which you would presumably consider acceptable (not “biased sources” although they certainly are biased – just in your direction) and acknowledge that Iran has a long history of acting as our enemy has outed you definitively as a troll. The best you can come up with is a context-free reference to Ollie North. Which is just sad really. So your M.O. is to toss out accusatory B.S., and when it is debunked with sources of which even the left approves, just move on as if nothing had happened – to different B.S. Nice. Future comments from you along these lines are probably going to be converted to Redneck.
Why don’t you study up on the relative satisfaction of the people in both countries with their elections. And while you’re at it, study up on the “slow,” or rather, RAPID decrease in violence when the surge had been in place a little while. The charts showing the deaths of both soldiers and civilians, with the massive dropoff over a short period of time are quite remarkable. A testimony to our troops, your country’s Diggers, and even to some extent the Brit troops. You’re now less likely to be killed in Baghdad than you are in New Orleans. That’s a fact, though I won’t bother to provide you with a link you’ll just ignore. But if you were a serious person, you could easily find it out on your own.
Go ahead, fisk the Butler report. I’ll wait for you to SHOW me where I’m wrong, using sources of which I approve (as I did for you). (looks at watch, wonders why xanth is so ignorant he/she doesn’t know that Bush’s infamous sixteen words stated that Iraq SOUGHT yellowcake. But that’s another story… ) As for
PlameDouble-0-Soccer Mom who drove to CIA headquarters every day and that ridiculous “investigation” to learn who outed her – when that was known the first month… a total joke. And by that I mean her and her lackey husband, and the investigation, and the left’s cynical use of the whole thing, including your side’s failure to treat Armitage, the guy who actually outed her and who still has a job and regularly attends Beltway cocktail parties, at least as harshly as you did Scooter Libby, the designated villain of the piece.My mind IS made up about the stimulus, troll. You can get as shirty as you want, but deep down you surely know better. My problem with the stimulus is that it’s permanent, AND my problem is that the left is flat-out lying about its expected effects. They declare it’s going to create jobs… yes, sure, a few months of work on a railroad that will go bankrupt (if allowed to, and is not government subsidized) and generate more UNemployment than employment. How dishonest and cynical is that? It’s a disgrace. If we MUST have this ridiculous, spendy stimulus instead of tax breaks which have been repeatedly proved to work, at least ditch the pork and go with the START plan.
Because they weren’t relevant to anything I actually said. (The reports simply quote anonymous sources in any case.) Iran doesn’t need to invade.
Has Iran been actively and continuously at war with the US since 1979? Nope. A cold war for many years, yes, until the invasion of Iraq made things very convenient for them. You don’t understand the reference to North because you don’t remember Iran Contra, perhaps. It doesn’t matter.
I’m looking at the chart right now. The SLOW decline begins before the Surge. It’s still very bad even after the segregation.
How can I “fisk” evidence that the report doesn’t provide?
I was fairly civil to you; perhaps your insecurity prompts this unnecessary rudeness?
Libby independently told Judith Miller on 8 July 2003. Armitage came clean and Libby did not because Armitage’s action was a mistake and Libby’s action was deliberate.
No they haven’t. They are not effective as a stimulus because the extra cash is mostly saved. Sorry. For example, look at page nine of this PDF by Mark Zandi from Moody’s. We’ve had tax cuts galore over eight years. No results except a bubble.
Please stop pretending that the stimulus consists of two or three projects.
Okay, that’s enough. If you can believe that you can believe anything. Do the math.
As it’s your blog I’ll let you have the last word.
Oh, where to start, disingenuous and dishonest troll? I don’t find your tone especially civil, to be honest, xanth, so it perplexes me that you are surprised I responded in kind. You began, in #4, by implying that I dishonestly fooled around with the numbers in order to achieve a desired result, and in #6 you outright called me a liar by accusing me of telling “whoppers.” Then you called me stupid, by saying “you cannot even figure out…” although it seems abundantly clear to me – and you have not disputed it – that this rail program is going to generate more unemployment than employment. In short, if you think you’re being civil, I’d hate to see you when you’re rude. You frost that cake by accusing me of “pretending” that the stimulus consists of two or three projects – a completely baseless accusation, as I never said or implied anything like that. Evidently unless I list ALL the pork projects and criticize them, I’m not entitled to discuss ANY. Interestingly, you didn’t object to my conclusion that the railroad was a waste of time that will go bankrupt if not continually subsidized.
In your #6, you complained that I said “that “Iran has been our enemy since 1979″” – hence the conversation about whether or not Iran is our enemy. I asserted that the fact that Iran has been killing our troops, has invaded our sovereign territory (our embassy), held our people hostage for, IIRC, 444 days, and declares themselves to be our enemy on a regular basis, means that they are, in fact, our enemy. In #11 you engage in goalpost moving – “continuous and active war” is evidently now the criteria, and now that it’s “convenient” for Iran to attack us, you seem to imply that it’s perfectly understandable that they do so. You do not, however, make any sort of case that Iran is NOT our enemy, which was the point of this part of the conversation. I am well aware of Iran-Contra, and more than just the Wiki entry. But that is not relevant to the argument that Iran has declared itself to be, and indeed behaved as, our enemy for decades.
Your silliness is exposed again by your description of the surge decline as SLOW. Again, I’ll select a leftist source.
A reduction from 76-67 down to 25; less than half, and described even by the IBC as “substantial” is NOT slow. The top two charts at that link, for civilian deaths, illustrate a sharp drop.
As for the likelihood of being killed in Baghdad vs. New Orleans – it’s entirely true. New Orleans violent death rate at 81 per 100,000 in 2006 is higher than Iraq’s 61 per 100,000… or if you figure Iraq’s civilian deaths only, 53 per 100k. That “Baghdad on the bayou” meme that made the rounds on the right a couple of years ago – though entirely ignored by the left, when it could not be successfully debunked – was based on this fact.
These “trolls” never will succomb to the pressure of telling the truth my friend. It’s just like any liar, one they start, they can’t stop. They convince themselves of their own lies and rhetoric because they have to, otherwise that would mean they could have been wrong, you see. Only those who are “right” are worthy of walking among them. They fight simply to hear themselves, adore themselves, and stroke each other. I can’t even stomach the news anymore, the grotesque bias and groupthink, stroking, etc are nauseating. Nevermind that Lord Obama is a socialist whose terrorist affiliations make him inelligible to gain security clearance through the CIA, but…he can be president??? Hmmmm….The fact that one of his first concerns after taking office was to free his terrorist buddies. Hmmmm…..Or that he’s now socializing our healthcare system, trying to socialize (nationalize) our banks, hmmmm….nevermind that this muslim who has espoused promises of hope (in a very polished lawyeresque, convincing fashion), all of which are LIES, or HALF-TRUTHS!!!But when u point it out to these mindless minions, they find freakin’ excuses for him!!! Nevermind that he’s working hard for corporate interest and other countries interests. I mean after all—-they are hurting from all this too, right???? That’s why he had to fly to Canada to assure them that he would thwart the Republican’s attempts to create the “By America Clause” which would require that the jobs that are supposed to be created from the stimulus are actually given to Americans……UH….NOPE! They are FREAKING OUTSOURCING THE JOBS!!!!! Oh, but the stupid bleepin railway that will be created for an unemployed America who WON’T be able to PAY the freaking FARES for the TRAIN will solve the problem. Really, are people that f’ng stupid???!!!! Moreover, it doesn’t take someone with ann economics degree to figure out that if you have more people drawing from a bank acct (tax base) then are putting money into it, it will see a NEGATIVE balance!!! Hello, can anybody say illegal immigration???? I am so tired of being force-fed the individual sob stories of the poor illegal aliens that have robbed my child of an education (school district superintendant sent out a message that the school district won’t even have enough money to cover cleaning expenses to prepare the school next year, laying off over 200 teachers, cutting more programs, they are begging parents to send essentials like paper, where the HELL is my tax dollars going???? ILLEGALS!!!! Um…pretty sure Cali can’t even pay their tax returns to their tax paying citizens right now because of this. Hospitals shutting down, schools closing, crime rates rising, etc….but Lord Obama assured the illegals that the hospitals WILL be REQUIRED by LAW to treat ALL Illegals. He’s also assured tax paying citizens that the government will be working with your doctor (bedside) to make sure they are making the most fn’g cost effective decisions! Doesn’t anyone here know what socialism is? Marksism? We are all soooo undereducated WE DON”T!!! This isn’t about sides anymore you TROLL! It’s about a man changing the face of our nation from a free democracy rooted in capitalism to a Socialist country with dictator Lord Obama!!!! Take your fn’g third world country ideals that keep your citizens in persisitent states of poverty, disease, corruption, and war back where it came from!! This is America God Damn IT! I want it BACK!!!!!!
It always amazes me, though it shouldn’t by now, how vicious and condescending people with opposite viewpoints can be. Instead of spending time discussing something maturely, xanth resorts to :
“You cannot even figure out how the construction of a railway could create jobs.”
That is civil? Seriously? Any good reply xanth presented was made moot by his/her uncivil tone.
Laura presented some great points and was immediately called a liar (“whoopers” – doubt he was thinking of BK) When she presented links to alternate sources to many of her arguments, they were brushed off and the questions were changed or reworded.
Typical.
It is difficult to have civil conversations with people you do not agree with. That is part of the normal process I suppose. We surround ourselves in a cocoon of like minded people (especially on the Internet) and cannot understand how “other people” can be so stupid. Perhaps that is human nature.
But we have to combat that knee jerk reaction. Strip away the emotion of it all and look at the facts. I am not an Obama fan or voter, but I was extremely ashamed of the actions of some on the “left” during the recent election process. During McCain’s acceptance speech, “Code Pink’ interrupted him more than once with their yelling and screaming. How rude, inappropriate and childish can one be? If I were an Obama supporter, I would have been extremely embarrassed. Instead, I was embarrassed for them.
My point is that we have to come to the discussion acting like adults.
I think it is time to focus on principals. We get so bogged down on specifics and ideology that we miss the underlying theme of what we are arguing about. Let’s start on common ground and go from there. Let’s find an idea we can agree on and then look at a situation through that lens. If we don’t, we will never be able to live in peace.
As for the post, I am afraid where we are going money wise. Perhaps one day I will share a very personal story about my family, but if I did have a child I would be a bit afraid as to what we are leaving behind for him/her. This is not longer just about us, this is about our future. We have to have someone pulling back on the reigns or this spending will get out of control. I would say that it already has.
To xanth (and those on sharing his point of view), do you really think all this spending will get us out of the slump we are in? If so, why? Where is the logic behind it? Where is the proof that it will work? If your side could present a valid argument FOR this outrageous spending (and @ 2 to 3 trillion is outrageous – our work calculator doesn’t even go that high), then we could really get at the heart of what is happening.
I will respect your opinion as long as it isn’t because Obama/Democratic Party says this is the right thing to do. Just like I expect you to respect my opinion as long as it isn’t what Rush/Republican Party says is the right thing to do.
Whew, guess that’s it for me!
Travis
Travis Clay´s last blog post..K.I.S.S.: Democracy vs. Republic
Well said. I struggle with that. A lot. And I’ve had to apologize more than once for it.