DJ Drummond at Wizbang has the latest on polling and it’s good news for the McCain camp.
Says Gallup; “Early voting ranges from 14% of voters 55 and older (in aggregated data from Friday through Wednesday) to 5% of those under age 35. Plus, another 22% of voters aged 55 and up say they plan to vote early, meaning that by Election Day, over a third of voters in this older age group may already have cast their ballots.”
The last two statements are very good news for McCain and bad news for Obama. This is because it demonstrates that enthusiasm to actually vote by republicans is equal to enthusiasm to vote by democrats. This runs directly against claims made in polling up to now, demonstrating that participation in polls is not directly related to voting this year. Second, the higher participation by senior voters and weaker participation by younger voters is directly in line with historical norms, again running against the poll expectations that this year would see a wave of young people voting but seniors staying at home.
As Sarah Palin pointed out last week, this race is not yet over. I would point out, too, that even if you live an a state that is pretty sure to go one way or the other – Louisiana, for example, is a sure bet for McCain – it’s still important to vote. We had quite enough of that “won the popular vote, lost the electoral vote” sniping in 2000.
| Al Gore (Democrat) |
50,999,897 |
48.38% |
| George W. Bush (Republican) |
50,456,002 |
47.87% |
The electoral vote is what counts – and it has to count, or many states will have no effective voice at all. But when a president can claim both the popular and the electoral, he has more of a mandate and can govern more effectively. So no matter where you live – GO VOTE!
